Golden Globe Predictions: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Lady Gaga (House of Gucci)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

This category feels like it has seven strong contenders, with a few outliers who could bump a few of them out if their films are very well-received. Cate Blanchett (Tár), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), and Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) feel safe. Viola Davis (The Woman King) probably is too, though I’m not sure how warmly her film will be embraced (not that it matters, given her popularity). For the fifth slot, I’m going with Naomi Ackie (I Wanna Dance with Somebody), but I am concerned that voters haven’t actually seen the movie yet (I haven’t either), but Andra Day got in – and then won – for a similar musical performance in a drama that hadn’t been widely seen early two years ago. A nominee from last year, Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), could easily return, and Ana de Armas (Blonde), whose film doesn’t seem to be too adored, feels like the type of performance that Globe voters will love to honor. Other possibilities include Jennifer Lawrence (Causeway), Zoe Kazan (She Said), Carey Mulligan (She Said), Taylor Russell (Bones and All), Rooney Mara (Women Talking), and Florence Pugh (Don’t Worry Darling).

Current predictions:
Naomi Ackie (I Wanna Dance with Somebody)
Cate Blanchett (Tár)
Viola Davis (The Woman King)
Danielle Deadwyler
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)