Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

The competition: CODA (Sian Heder), Drive My Car (Ryûsuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe), Dune (Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, and Eric Roth), The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal), The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)

Previous winners: The Father, Jojo Rabbit, BlacKkKlansman, Call Me By Your Name, Moonlight, The Big Short, The Imitation Game
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: The director of each of these films is among the nominees in this category. Campion won for her screenplay of “The Piano” in 1993, and also contends as a director and producer this year. Roth has five previous nominations in this category, winning for “Forrest Gump” in 1994 and contending again for “The Insider,” “Munich,” “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” and “A Star is Born.” Villeneuve, who is also nominated as a producer this year, was nominated for directing “Arrival” in 2016. With this exact list of nominees at BAFTA, “CODA” triumphed, and it also won at WGA with a few nominees present. “The Lost Daughter” won the USC Scripter, which also had a few nominees missing.
Who should win: I’d prefer “CODA,” “Dune,” or “The Power of the Dog,” but these are all great choices.
Who will win: I think that “The Power of the Dog” remains possible, but CODA is looking more and more likely.