Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role

The competition: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

Previous winners: Frances McDormand, Renee Zellweger, Olivia Colman, Frances McDormand, Emma Stone, Brie Larson, Julianne Moore, Cate Blanchett
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: The only first-time nominee in this race is Stewart, who also represents the lone nomination for her film. Kidman won in 2002 for “The Hours” and this marks her fifth nod, with additional bids for “Moulin Rouge,” “Rabbit Hole,” and “Lion.” This is the fourth nomination for Cruz, who won in 2008 for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” and was also cited for “Volver” and “Nine.” Colman won on her first try in 2018 for “The Favourite” and was nominated again last year for “The Father.” Chastain was nominated in 2011 and 2012 for “The Help” and “Zero Dark Thirty,” respectively. None of these films are up for Best Picture. The precursor season has been very divided with inconsistent nominees. Chastain won at SAG and the Critics Choice Awards, while Kidman took home the Golden Globe, but Stewart and Cruz sat some of those competitions out.

Who should win: Chastain
Who will win: I had been sticking with Stewart for so long, but after her SAG snub and then her loss at the Critics Choice Awards to apparent new frontrunner Chastain, I think I’m officially switching over to the latter. Like last year, anyone could theoretically win here, but it’s likely Chastain is ahead of the rest.