Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Ciarán Hinds (Belfast), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

Previous winners: Daniel Kaluuya, Brad Pitt, Mahershala Ali, Sam Rockwell, Mahershala Ali, Mark Rylance, J.K. Simmons
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: Only one of these men has been nominated for an Oscar before, and that’s Simmons, who won in 2014 for “Whiplash.” He’s also the only one whose film isn’t up for Best Picture. While Smit-McPhee won most critics’ prizes and the Golden Globe, Kotsur has been reliably cleaning up since then. Two actors from one film have been nominated together previously, including three times in the past four years, leading to two victories from that film.
Who should win: Kotsur
Who will win: It’s possible that Smit-McPhee could still muster voters, but Kotsur is a very popular choice and I don’t think he’s going to lose.