SAG Winner Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar), Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Jared Leto (House of Gucci), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

For your information: Though he has three past ensemble nominations and two wins – for “Shakespeare in Love” and “Argo” – this is his first individual bid. Cooper has two previous individual nominations, for “Silver Linings Playbook” and “A Star is Born.” Leto was nominated for this prize last year for “The Little Things” and won in 2013 for “Dallas Buyers Club.” This is the first nomination for both Kotsur and Smit-McPhee, who are also the only two from this category who got nominated for Oscars. Kotsur and Leto are also nominated as part of their ensembles. All but seven times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar.

Who should win? Kotsur is my clear choice but I also liked Affleck’s work.

Who will win? It’s possible that Kotsur could swing ahead here with his film nominated in the ensemble category, but I think that Smit-McPhee remains the frontrunner.