Last year’s nominees: Love and Monsters, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, The One and Only Ivan, Tenet
My choices: Coming soon!
This year’s locks: Dune, Spider-Man: The Way Home
Possible: The Matrix Resurrections, Shang-Chi: The Legend of the Ten Rings, Eternals, Godzilla vs. Kong, Free Guy, Black Widow
Unlikely: Ghostbusters: Afterlife, No Time to Die
The rundown: This category has a ten-film shortlist, which should make it easy to predict, but last year two of my “unlikely” picks ended up making the cut. I’ve also only seen half of the films on the list, though I’m not sure that always helps since my tastes don’t align with Oscar voters. There’s no way that Dune misses, and I would be shocked if Spider-Man: No Way Home didn’t join it, even if the first two films from the latest series only made the first round shortlist that used to exist. Marvel has a few more contenders in the mix, and I think Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings and Eternals will both score, while Black Widow is much less likely. The Matrix Resurrections is likely even if the film received a mixed response, and the first film back in 1999 did win this prize while the second and third didn’t even make the shortlist in 2003. I was going to predict Godzilla vs. Kong before I realized that no Godzilla film has made the cut before, even if “Kong: Skull Island” did get nominated in 2017 and “King Kong” won in 2005. Two of the films on the shortlist, Free Guy and Ghostbusters: Afterlife, didn’t score a single mention from the Visual Effects Society, but they could still get in here. I might be underestimating No Time to Die since it showed up on so many shortlists, but I don’t think its chances are likely in this category.
Forecasted winner: I think Dune can win this without any trouble.
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