Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, February 8th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

My choices: Here they are!

This year’s locks: The Power of the Dog, Belfast, Dune, West Side Story

Very likely: Licorice Pizza, King Richard, CODA, Don’t Look Up

Possible: tick, tick…BOOM!, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Being the Ricardos, Drive My Car

Unlikely: Nightmare Alley, House of Gucci, Spider-Man: No Way Home, No Time to Die

The rundown: This is the first time since 2010 that this category will have exactly ten nominees. The most informative place to look is to the Producers Guild of America, which suggested all plausible inclusions, with Being the Ricardos as the least likely to translate. Let’s start with the sure things: The Power of the Dog, Belfast, Dune, and West Side Story. The last of those didn’t score a BAFTA Best Film nomination, but it’s a very popular musical from Steven Spielberg whose original film won this prize sixty years ago. BAFTA also added Licorice Pizza and Don’t Look Up, and King Richard and CODA should be safe too. That leaves tick, tick...BOOM! as the remaining PGA nominee, and while I do hope that it gets in, it’s been an inconsistent performer this awards season. The same goes for The Tragedy of Macbeth, which I think will snag the last spot. Drive My Car is also a distinct possibility, but a foreign film without precursor support hasn’t cracked this category since “Amour” nine years ago. Nightmare Alley might be able to show up in a big way, while SAG ensemble nominee House of Gucci is also possible. There was buzz a few weeks ago for Spider-Man: No Way Home, but its inclusion here would be a shock since PGA passed. The same goes for No Time to Die, which was all over the Oscar shortlists but doesn’t seem likely to show up here.

For your consideration : It’s been nearly invisible this awards season, but C’mon C’mon felt like exactly the kind of film voters might go for, and it would be great to see it finally honored.

Predicted nominees: Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog, tick, tick…BOOM!, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story

Forecasted winner: It’s looking like The Power of the Dog.