Last year’s nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
This year’s locks: Dune, The Power of the Dog
Very likely: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Possible: West Side Story, Belfast, Nightmare Alley, Passing
Unlikely: Spencer, Titane, No Time to Die
The rundown: It’s not typically wise to predict the exact lineup of the American Society of Cinematographers list since they don’t match 5/5 all that often. It would be unimaginable for Dune or The Power of the Dog to miss here, and even if its overall Oscar haul is very up in the air, The Tragedy of Macbeth feels like a good bet too. The question is whether ASC mention Belfast (check out my interview with cinematographer Haris Zambarloukos) gets another slot or if other black-and-white contenders, namely Passing, are also included. I’m opting to leave Nightmare Alley, a very deserving choice, off in favor of another film that I think will get in despite its ASC miss, West Side Story. Of the Spotlight choices from the ASC, Titane seems distinctly possible as a wild pick, but I don’t think it’s likely. Spencer is probably a better bet, and it’s worth noting that “Skyfall” did merit a mention in this category a decade ago, and No Time to Die showed up on a whopping five Oscar shortlists, suggesting that it’s a popular film with voters.
For your consideration: It could probably still happen, but another black-and-white film wowed me with its lensing, C’mon C’mon.
Forecasted winner: I imagine this goes to Dune over “The Power of the Dog.”
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