Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, February 8th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Father, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, The White Tiger

This year’s locks: The Power of the Dog, Dune

Very likely: The Lost Daughter

Possible: CODA, Drive My Car, West Side Story, tick, tick…BOOM!, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Passing, Nightmare Alley

Unlikely: Cyrano, House of Gucci

The rundown: The Writers Guild of America list is informative but not entirely helpful because of the high-profile films that were ineligible, namely The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, and this year’s International Feature frontrunner, Drive My Car, and also Passing and Cyrano. From the films the WGA could choose, Dune is likeliest, followed by CODA and West Side Story, though I’m betting the latter might be left off. tick, tick…BOOM! and Nightmare Alley round out that list and are distinctly possible too. The Tragedy of Macbeth was eligible but was left off, and that could show up here too.

For your consideration: I don’t pretend it has a shot, but Benedetta would be a strong and deserving choice.

Forecasted winner: I don’t think anything but The Power of the Dog can win this.