My predictions: 3/5
Who’s missing? Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), Marlee Matlin (CODA), Ann Dowd (Mass)
The big snub here is Ellis, though Amanda Seyfried bounced back from that omission last year and Regina King even managed to win without it. The beneficiary of the open slot is Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley), which makes me very happy since she was terrific in a film that hasn’t been consistently attracting attention. I had expected Ruth Negga (Passing) to miss here, but now she’s looking stronger for an Oscar nomination, even if her film hasn’t earned much attention. Caitriona Balfe (Belfast) is the only member of her cast to be nominated, and she’s also the only one in this category to have her ensemble cited. Golden Globe winner Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) is the lone representative of her film, while Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) has two of her costars nominated.
Who will win? I think DeBose can win here unless Dunst prevails.
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