Your Guide to the Oscars

For the fourth year in a row, I managed to see every single film nominated in every category. I feel confident and ready in some categories and completely at a loss in others.

The past five years have seen unpredictable ceremonies with uncertain Best Picture victors, and this year doesn’t have that. “Nomadland” is far ahead of anything else, and while a surprise is possible, it’s certain other categories that are completely unknown, like Best Actress. The other truly competitive races are Best Supporting Actress, Best Documentary, Best Original Screenplay, Best Film Editing, and Best Original Song. While it's worth noting that Riz Ahmed won Best Actor at the Spirit Awards and Anthony Hopkins triumphed at BAFTA, I still think that Chadwick Boseman will win that prize.

I’m betting on “Nomadland” to lead with four wins, followed by “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” with three and “Soul” and “Sound of Metal” with two. Of the Best Picture nominees, I think that “The Father” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7” will go home empty-handed, though they could easily win their respective screenplay races.

I’ve detailed the nominees and their chances in each of the categories below, and you can click on each race heading to read my full Oscar winner predictions. Predicted winners are in bold. Click on film titles for full reviews of each, and make sure to read any linked interviews too. Happy watching!

Best Picture
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Interview

Best Director
Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) - Interview
David Fincher (Mank)
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Steven Yeun (Minari)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)
Olivia Colman (The Father)
Amanda Seyfried (Mank)
Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)

Best Original Screenplay
Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal - Interview
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Adapted Screenplay
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Father
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The White Tiger

Best Cinematography
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Production Design
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom - Interview
Mank - Interview
News of the World - Interview
Tenet

Best Costume Design
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank - Interview
Mulan
Pinocchio

Best Film Editing
The Father
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal - Interview
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Original Score
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul

Best Original Song
“Husavik” (Eurovision Song Contest)
“Fight for You” (Judas and the Black Messiah)
“Io Si” (The Life Ahead)
“Speak Now” (One Night in Miami)
“Hear My Voice” (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Best Sound
Greyhound - Interview
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal - Interview

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Emma
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom - Interview
Mank
Pinocchio - Interview

Best Visual Effects
Love and Monsters
The Midnight Sky - Interview
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Tenet

Best Animated Feature
Onward
Over the Moon
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

Best Documentary Short Film
Colette
A Concerto is a Conversation
Do Not Split
Hunger Ward
A Love Song for Latasha

Best Animated Short Film
Burrow
Genius Loci
If Anything Happens I Love You
Opera
Yes-People

Best Live Action Short Film
Feeling Through
The Letter Room
The Present
Two Distant Strangers
White Eye

Best Documentary
Collective
Crip Camp
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher
Time

Best International Feature

Another Round - Interview
Better Days
The Man Who Sold His Skin
Pain and Glory
Quo Vadis, Aida?