Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Visual Effects

The competition: Love and Monsters (Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt, and Brian Cox), The Midnight Sky (Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon, and David Watkins), Mulan (Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury, and Steve Ingram), The One and Only Ivan (Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones, and Santiago Colomo Martinez), and Tenet (Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley, and Scott R. Fisher)

Previous winners: First Man, Blade Runner 2049, The Jungle Book, Ex Machina, Interstellar, Gravity, Life of Pi, Hugo
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: Lawrence won this award for “Gravity” in 2013 and was nominated again in 2015 for “The Martian” and in 2018 for “Christopher Robin.” Langlands was also nominated for “The Martian.” Davis contended in 2008 for “The Dark Knight.” Jackson was nominated in 2015 for “Mad Max: Fury Road.” Lockley and Fisher won in 2014 for “Interstellar,” and Lockley also won in 2010 for “Inception.” If you haven’t already, check out my interview with several of the nominated artisans from “The Midnight Sky.” At the Visual Effects Society Awards, “The Midnight Sky” won two prizes, “Mulan” and “The One and Only Ivan” won one each. Despite a six-year stretch from 2008 to 2013, this award has only gone to a Best Picture nominee twenty-three times since the inception of the Oscars. Last year’s win for “1917” was the first time that happened since 2013.

 
Who should win: I don’t think this category is particularly strong this year, especially considering the fact that “Welcome to Chechnya” was a finalist. Between “The Midnight Sky” and “Tenet,” I don’t think I have much of a preference, and “Mulan” would be okay too.
Who will win: I feel like this will be Tenet given the fact that it also earned a production design bid, though it could just as easily be “The Midnight Sky.” Any of the others would surprise me.