Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

The competition: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, Lee Kern, and Nina Pedrad),The Father (Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller), Nomadland (Chloé Zhao), One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers), The White Tiger (Ramin Bahrani)

Previous winners: Jojo Rabbit, BlacKkKlansman, Call Me By Your Name, Moonlight, The Big Short, The Imitation Game, 12 Years a Slave
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: Baron Cohen, Hines, Baynham, and Mazer were all nominated in this race in 2006 for the first “Borat” film, and Cohen is nominated this year for his performance in “The Trial of the Chicago 7.” Hampton won this prize in 1988 for “Dangerous Liaisons” and was nominated again in 2007 for “Atonement.” This is Zhao’s first time being nominated, and she contends also for directing, producing, and editing her film. Only “The Father” and “Nomadland” are up for Best Picture. “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” defeated “One Night in Miami” and “The White Tiger” at the WGA Awards, where the other two nominees here weren’t eligible, and “Nomadland” won the USC Scripter Award, besting “One Night in Miami.”
Who should win: I’d give this to “One Night in Miami” without much hesitation.
Who will win: This feels like a safe win for Nomadland given that what might have been its closest competitor, “One Night in Miami,” didn’t perform all that well. It would be startling to see “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” win given that the first film didn’t.