Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Previous winners: Brad Pitt, Mahershala Ali, Sam Rockwell, Mahershala Ali, Mark Rylance, J.K. Simmons, Jared Leto
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: Only one of these men has been nominated for an acting Oscar before, and that’s Kaluuya, who contended in 2017 for “Get Out.” Cohen was nominated in 2006 for writing the screenplay to “Borat” and is up again this year for the script for “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.” Odom is also nominated this year for the song “Speak Now” from his film. Both Raci and Stanfield are here after missing out on many and all, respectively, precursors. All but Odom have their films nominated for Best Picture. Multiple nominees from one film happen occasionally, including last year for “The Irishman,” and the second most recent case – 2017 – resulted in a win for one of them. Kaluuya has won the Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics Choice Award. The only actor to win those three prizes and then lose this award was Eddie Murphy in 2006 for “Dreamgirls,” who ultimately lost to Alan Arkin for “Little Miss Sunshine.”
Who should win: This is a great list even if Stanfield really doesn’t belong in this category. I’d choose Kaluuya, Cohen, or Odom.
Who will win: Even with his unexpected internal competition, Kaluuya shouldn’t have any trouble winning.