SAG Winner Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

The competition: Riz Ahmed’s newly deaf drummer (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman’s passionate musician (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins’ dementia-stricken parent (The Father), Gary Oldman’s determined screenwriter (Mank), and Steven Yeun’s hard-working father (Minari).

For your information: Ahmed was previously nominated in 2016 for his performance in the limited series “The Night Of.” The late Boseman won an ensemble prize for “Black Panther” in 2018 and makes history this year as the first performer to earn two individual nominations and two ensemble nominations, thanks to his role in “Da 5 Bloods,” in one year. Hopkins has three previous individual nominations, most recently in 2018 for “King Lear,” and three ensemble bids. Oldman won this prize in 2017 for “Darkest Hour” and was nominated in 2000 for “The Contender.” Yeun is the lone first-time nominee, and, like Boseman, is nominated as part of his ensemble. All five of these men earned Oscar nominations, and Yeun was the only one not in contention at the Golden Globes, where Boseman prevailed. He also triumphed at the Critics Choice Awards. All but four times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win an Oscar. The most recent time it didn’t happen was in 2016 when Denzel Washington beat eventually Oscar champ Casey Affleck here.

Who should win? It’s a superb group. I’d choose Boseman or Ahmed.

Who will win? I think the quadruple nomination all but ensures a victory for Boseman.