Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, March 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Kathy Bates, Laura Dern, Scarlett Johansson, Florence Pugh, Margot Robbie

This year’s locks: Olivia Colman

Very likely: Glenn Close, Maria Bakalova, Amanda Seyfried

Possible: Yuh-Jung Youn, Helena Zengel, Jodie Foster, Ellen Burstyn

Unlikely: Dominique Fishback, Olivia Cooke

The rundown: This category felt more secure before Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman), a presumed shoo-in, wasn’t nominated by either the Globes or SAG. Amanda Seyfried (Mank) missed out with SAG, while Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari) scored there. Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) lost her comedy lead actress race at the Globes, which has prompted some to doubt her chances, while Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) pulled off a surprise Globe win after being cited almost nowhere else. Twelve-year-old Helena Zengel (News of the World) is one of three actresses who scored with both the Globes and SAG, joined by Olivia Colman (The Father) and Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), whose chances I’m not so sure of but wouldn’t risk predicting her being snubbed. I’m betting that Foster doesn’t make the cut, even though there’s a swell of attention on her right now. There aren’t many other possibilities here, though either Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah) or Olivia Cooke (Sound of Metal) could benefit from late-breaking love for their films.

For your consideration: How amazing would it be if the underrated Bel Powley (The King of Staten Island) could score here for her turn in a comedy?

Forecasted winner: I really don’t know. Maybe it will be Close provided she gets in?