Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, March 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Tom Hanks, Anthony Hopkins, Al Pacino, Joe Pesci, Brad Pritt

This year’s locks: Daniel Kaluuya, Sacha Baron Cohen

Very likely: Leslie Odom Jr., Chadwick Boseman

Possible: Paul Raci, Bill Murray, Jared Leto, Bo Burnham, David Strathairn

Unlikely: Aldis Hodge, Colman Domingo, Glynn Turman, Orion Lee, Mark Rylance, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Frank Langella, Alan S. Kim

The rundown: This race isn’t so set, mainly because there are any number of contenders from a few popular films who could throw the whole thing off by claiming a few extra spots. The frontrunner is alone in his film, and that’s Golden Globe winner Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah). Next up should be Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), who should be secure even if his costars, like Mark Rylance, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, or Frank Langella also secure enough votes. Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) feels safe, and it’s feasible that his costar Aldis Hodge (One Night in Miami) could join him if the movie goes over well with Oscar voters. The late Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods) feels like a likely double nominee, but it’s hard to know for sure how his film will go over after a Globe shutout. Looking at the Globes and SAG, Jared Leto (The Little Things) might score the fifth slot, but that puzzling inclusion was isolated to those two groups, so it’s far from a sure thing. The best performer with critics was Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), who could benefit from a strong showing for his film, while Bill Murray (On the Rocks), a Globe pick, isn’t going to have that same project support. Positive buzz for their films could propel Bo Burnham (Promising Young Woman) or David Strathairn (Nomadland) to a slot, while that’s less likely to work for Colman Domingo (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) and Glynn Turman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). If Academy enthusiasm matches early precursor energy, Orion Lee (First Cow) could end up as a great indie pick.

For your consideration: He’s young but so fantastic, and Alan S. Kim (Minari) would be a great choice to join his costars Steven Yeun and Yuh-Jung Youn, who are looking good for nominations.

Forecasted winner: Unless someone else emerges as a rival frontrunner, Kaluuya will be the winner.