Last year’s nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
This year’s locks: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank
Very likely: News of the World
Possible: The Personal History of David Copperfield, Promising Young Woman, Tenet, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, Emma, One Night in Miami
Unlikely: I’m Thinking of Ending Things, The Prom, Da 5 Bloods, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Nomadland
The rundown: I had the pleasure of speaking with the people responsible for the three projects I’m predicting as most likely to be nominated: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, and News of the World - you can read those interviews here, here, and here. I’m also pulling for One Night in Miami (that interview here), but I’m not sure it’s going to be able to make the cut. I do think that The Personal History of David Copperfield is a serious contender, even though it missed out on an Art Directors Guild bid, as is Promising Young Woman, which didn’t, and could be the rare contemporary film to score here. I’m not so sure that Tenet will do as well as others seem to think it will, and there are a slew of technical achievements, like The Midnight Sky (interview here), Mulan, Emma, The Prom, and Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey, that might do well here if they can oust the films that will likely show up in the major categories, like Da 5 Bloods, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Nomadland. I’m Thinking of Ending Things would surely deserve a place here, but its inclusion would be a welcome surprise at this point.
For your consideration: I was wowed by all of the sets and scenery for I’m Your Woman, an Amazon release that doesn’t seem to be garnering much attention. Read that very worthwhile interview here.
Forecasted winner: Maybe Mank? I’m not sure.
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