Oscar Predictions: Best International Feature

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, March 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Les Misérables (France), Honeyland (North Macedonia), Corpus Christi (Poland), Parasite (South Korea), Parasite (South Korea)

My choices: Coming soon!

This year’s locks: Another Round (Denmark), Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Very likely: None

Possible: Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast), Sun Children (Iran), The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia), Collective (Romania), Dear Comrades! (Russia), The Mole Agent (Chile), Two of Us (France), La Llorona (Guatemala), I’m No Longer Here (Mexico)

Unlikely: A Sun (Taiwan), Charlatan (Czech Republic), Hope (Norway), Better Days (Hong Kong)

The rundown: I’ve seen all fifteen of the finalists in this category, though I don’t think that gives me all that much of a better handle on this race. Three of the Golden Globe nominees are eligible here, but I’m only predicting one to make the cut. Another Round (Denmark) is a sure thing (read my interview here), while I think that Two of Us (France) and La Llorona (Guatemala) won’t. Quo Vadis, Aida? feels like it has to get nominated, and I’m also still betting on Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast) and Sun Children (Iran), two very buzzy titles. For the fifth slot, I’m putting my weight behind The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia), which I think voters will respond well to once they see it. It doesn’t feel right to leave two films that made the Best Documentary shortlist, Collective (Romania) and The Mole Agent (Chile), out, especially since I am predicting them to score there. Dear Comrades! (Russia) and I’m No Longer Here (Mexico) have both been strong subjects of conversation and could easily place. I’m less confident in the chances of A Sun (Taiwan), Charlatan (Czech Republic), Better Days (Hong Kong), and Hope (Norway – read my interview here), not because they’re not good but because there’s so much competition. Let’s see what happens.

Forecasted winner: I think this goes to Another Round.