Last year’s nominees: Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Parasite
This year’s locks: Nomadland
Very likely: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Possible: Tenet, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Mank, News of the World, The Father, Minari, One Night in Miami, Da 5 Bloods, Judas and the Black Messiah
Unlikely: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Palm Springs
The rundown: This category has offered up some shocking snubs in recent years, including my predicted lock “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” last year, “Roma” and “A Star is Born” two years ago, and “Get Out” and “Lady Bird” the year before that. The American Cinema Editors announced their nominations today, and they surprisingly did not include Tenet, which I do still think will make the cut. They also snubbed News of the World and The Father, two films that many had expected to show up here but I’m predicting to just miss. I’m betting on three of their dramatic choices - Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Sound of Metal - while presuming that Mank and Minari, which could very easily get nominated, will ultimately be left off here. I think that one of the comedy nominees, Promising Young Woman, will score, while Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and Palm Springs seem less likely. Other possibilities include One Night in Miami, Da 5 Bloods, and Judas and the Black Messiah.
For your consideration: It didn’t make the ACE Eddie documentary lineup and I’m predicting it to miss the Best Documentary category here, but Time was an absolutely incredible work made even more powerful by its purposeful construction.
Forecasted winner: I actually think Sound of Metal could take this.
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