Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, March 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: The Irishman, Joker, The Lighthouse, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

This year’s locks: Nomadland, Mank, News of the World

Possible: Tenet, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Minari, Da 5 Bloods,

Unlikely: Judas and the Black Messiah, First Cow, Dear Comrades, The Mauritanian

The rundown: I got a perfect score on this category last year – can I repeat that? The American Society of Cinematographers, which announced its picks today, is typically the best framework for predicting this list, matching entirely three years ago and four for five the past two years. Its left-field pick was Cherry, which is distinctly possible but I would expect to be swapped for Tenet, which was cited by the Critics Choice Association. Nomadland, Mank, and News of the World seem safe, while The Trial of the Chicago 7 may be more precarious. The ASC spotlight category produced an Oscar nominee last year, “The Lighthouse,” and theoretically could do the same this time for Dear Comrades. Likelier possibilities include Minari, Da 5 Bloods, or First Cow, all Critics Choice picks, or BAFTA nominees Judas and the Black Messiah or The Mauritanian.

For your consideration: The magical world of Wendy should be rewarded for its wondrous camerawork.

Forecasted winner: This feels like Nomadland to me.