Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, March 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, The Two Popes

This year’s locks: Nomadland, The Father

Very likely: One Night in Miami, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Possible: News of the World, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, First Cow, I’m Thinking of Ending Things

Unlikely: The White Tiger, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Emma, The United States vs. Billie Holiday, The Mauritanian, Hillbilly Elegy

The rundown: The WGA list isn’t likely to translate exactly to the Oscar lineup because there were two high-profile films in this category ineligible there: Nomadland and The Father. I’m still feeling good about One Night in Miami and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom even though they underperformed at the Golden Globes. The other WGA nominee that has a good shot at repeating at the Oscars is News of the World. I wouldn’t be shocked by Borat Subsequent Moviefilm since the first film did get nominated in this category, while The White Tiger, which hasn’t showed up anywhere but WGA, would be more of a surprise. Two highly-regarded independent films from earlier in the year that could place here, even if they get shut out of other races, are First Cow and I’m Thinking of Ending Things, while The Personal History of David Copperfield and Emma could benefit from the same early enthusiasm. On the opposite end of the spectrum, The United States vs. Billie Holiday or The Mauritanian might ride late-breaking buzz to a nod, and even the mostly-reviled Hillbilly Elegy could show up.

For your consideration: It would be wonderful to see Charm City Kings honored for a rich and rewarding script.

Forecasted winner: As long as it gets nominated, I’d bet on One Night in Miami to take it.