Golden Globe Musings: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced shortly, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that, especially this year, it’s hard to know which films and performances will end up being honored.

Last year’s nominees:
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
The Two Popes

The Globes don’t have separate categories for original and adapted screenplays, which means that the buzziest films nominated in the top races often place here, along with a few surprising inclusions every couple of years. Both “Roma” and “Parasite” made the cut in the past two years, and I think that suggests that another subtitled entry, Minari, has a decent shot. It will have to compete with The Trial of the Chicago 7, Nomadland, Mank, and Promising Young Woman, as well as other possibilities like The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Da 5 Bloods, News of the World, Sound of Metal, On the Rocks, and First Cow.

Current predictions:
Mank
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7