SAG Winner Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

The competition: Christian Bale’s race car driver (Ford v Ferrari), Leonardo DiCaprio’s acting actor (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver’s divorcing theater director (Marriage Story), Taron Egerton’s Elton John (Rocketman), and Joaquin Phoenix’s lonely clown (Joker).

For your information: Bale was also nominated last year for “Vice.” He won for “The Fighter” in 2010 and was nominated for “The Big Short” in 2015, picking up ensemble nominations for both films, “3:10 to Yuma” in 2007, and a win for “American Hustle” in 2013. DiCaprio won in 2015 for “The Revenant” and was nominated in 2004 for “The Aviator,” in 2006 for “Blood Diamond” and “The Departed,” and in 2011 for “J. Edgar.” He has four additional ensemble nominations. Driver was nominated last year both individually and as part of his cast for “BlacKkKlansman.” Phoenix was nominated in 2000 for “Gladiator” and in 2005 for “Walk the Line,” with two other ensemble bids. This is Egerton’s first nomination. DiCaprio is the only actor also nominated this year as part of his ensemble. Phoenix picked up a Globe and the Critics’ Choice Award, while Egerton also won a Globe. Bale and Egerton are not nominated at the Oscars. All but five times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar.

Who should win? I wasn’t as taken with DiCaprio or Egerton’s performances as everyone else seems to be, and Bale was good but not at the top of my list. I’d probably pick Phoenix over Driver, but they were both great.

Who will win? It would be strange if this went to someone aside from Phoenix.