The competition: Laura Dern’s divorce lawyer (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson’s free-spirited mother (Jojo Rabbit), Nicole Kidman’s embattled journalist (Bombshell), Jennifer Lopez’s high-rolling stripper (Hustlers), and Margot Robbie’s aspiring producer (Bombshell).
For your information: Dern was nominated in 2008 for “Recount” and in 2017 for “Big Little Lies,” and contends as part of the latter’s cast this year. Double nominee Johansson earns her first bids this year, for this film and for “Marriage Story.” Kidman was nominated in 2002 for “The Hours,” in 2004 for “Hemingway and Gellhorn,” in 2010 for “Rabbit Hole,” in 2015 for “Grace of Monaco,” and in 2016 for “Lion,” with three additional ensemble bids. She won in 2007 for “Big Little Lies,” for which she contends as part of the ensemble this year along with Dern. This is Robbie’s third consecutive nomination after bids for “I, Tonya” and “Mary, Queen of Scots,” and she also contends this year as part of the “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” ensemble. Johansson, Kidman, and Robbie are nominated as part of their casts. Dern won the Globe and Critics’ Choice Award. Lopez and Kidman aren’t nominated for Oscars. All but seven times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar. This category has featured double nominees from one film ten times, leading to victories for one of them three times.
Who should win? I wouldn’t vote for Kidman since it’s not her best work, but I’d be fine with any of the other four.
Who will win? This might be a chance to reward Lopez since Oscar didn’t opt to include her, but I think Dern will still win.
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