SAG Winner Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

The competition: Cynthia Erivo’s Harriet Tubman (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson’s divorcing actress (Marriage Story), Lupita Nyong’o’s two versions of herself (Us), Charlize Theron’s conflicted journalist (Bombshell), and Renee Zellweger’s Judy Garland (Judy).

For your information: Zellweger won back-to-back prizes in 2002 and 2003, for “Chicago” and “Cold Mountain,” and was also nominated for “Jerry Maguire” in 1996 and “Bridget Jones’ Diary” in 2001. She won as part of the “Chicago” cast in 2002. Theron won in 2003 for “Monster” and was nominated in 2004 for “The Life and Death of Peter Sellers” and in 2005 for “North Country,” in addition to an ensemble bid for “The Cider House Rules” in 1999. Nyong’o won in 2013 for “12 Years a Slave,” was nominated as part of its cast, and won last year as part of the “Black Panther” ensemble. Double nominee Johansson earns her first bids this year, for this film and for “Jojo Rabbit,” for which she also contends as part of the ensemble. This is Erivo’s first nomination. Only Theron is nominated as part of her ensemble. Zellweger has won the Globe and the Critics’ Choice Award. Nyong’o is the only one not nominated for an Oscar. All but seven times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar.

Who should win? Zellweger and Johansson are definitely my picks from this bunch.

Who will win? There’s no reason to think this would be anyone else but Zellweger.