Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Mahershala Ali, Adam Driver, Sam Elliott, Richard E. Grant, Sam Rockwell

This year’s locks: Brad Pitt

Very likely: Joe Pesci, Al Pacino, Tom Hanks

Possible: Anthony Hopkins, Song Kang Ho, Willem Dafoe, Jamie Foxx

Unlikely: Tracy Letts, Shia LaBeouf, Sam Rockwell

The rundown: Like last year, this category has been probably the least exciting of all the acting races since it’s largely included the same four men and a few others filling the last slot. There’s no question that Golden Globe winner Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) will be nominated, and barring some serious backlash, Joe Pesci (The Irishman) and Al Pacino (The Irishman) should be in too. He’s been snubbed previously, but Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) seems to be set for a nomination. For the fifth slot, I think the most logical pick is Golden Globe nominee Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), while SAG nominee Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy) seems a lot less likely since his film didn’t enter the awards conversation until very late. Many seem to be predicting Song Kang Ho (Parasite) as his film’s standout, similar to Marina de Tavira from “Roma” showing up at the last minute last year, but I’m not so confident in his chances. There are two contenders who would make it three in a row this year, one of them in this category, but Critics Choice nominee Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) will have to once again possibly be the solo nominee from his film and Sam Rockwell (Richard Jewell) doesn’t appear to have great prospects even if his performance is infinitely better and more sizeable than his turn in “Vice.” If the film was performing more steadily, Tracy Letts (Ford v Ferrari) might have a real shot, and I think it’s a stretch to expect that Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy) can finally earn an Oscar nomination for a highly praised but still small film. Or maybe we’ll get a huge surprise here?

One possible crazy scenario: He was listed on many prognosticators’ lists a while back, but could Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit) actually find himself nominated for playing a young Nazi’s boy imaginary best friend Adolf Hitler?

Forecasted winner: I’m still not entirely convinced that Pitt will win, but I’m not sure who else would at the moment.