Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, A Star is Born, Vice

My choices: Here they are!

This year’s locks: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, 1917, The Irishman, Joker

Very likely: Jojo Rabbit, Marriage Story

Possible: Little Women, Ford v Ferrari, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, The Two Popes, The Farewell, Knives Out, Bombshell

Unlikely: Uncut Gems, Rocketman, Dolemite Is My Name

The rundown: We’re at the end here, and I’m worried we’re going to get a lackluster list. The BAFTA Best Picture list represents the five most popular films that are sure to be included: Parasite, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, The Irishman, and Joker. Even if they experience snubs in other categories, they’ll be here. I’d be surprised if Jojo Rabbit, included at the Golden Globes and by SAG, DGA and PGA, isn’t nominated, and the same goes for Marriage Story, cited by the Globes and PGA. It’s less certain that Little Women, which underperformed at the Globes and was shut out by SAG, will be included, but I think it will. PGA picked Ford v Ferrari, which I think will make the cut here too. Other films vying for a slot are Globe nominee The Two Popes, The Farewell, which has been considered a foreign-language film by multiple groups, Knives Out, which was nominated for a top Globe and by the PGA, and Bombshell, which scored a SAG ensemble bid. I think it’s too late for Uncut Gems to sufficiently surge, and seeing either remaining Globe nominee for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical, Rocketman or Dolemite Is My Name, would be a surprise. I’m making an unwise prediction and picking Portrait of a Lady on Fire, a foreign language nominee at the Globes, BAFTA, and other places but ineligible at the Oscars due to France having submitted another film, to score the tenth slot. I’ll be pleased if I’m right – it’s one of my few risky picks this year.

One possible crazy scenario: It would have showed up somewhere else by now if epic superhero saga conclusion Avengers: Endgame was going to place.

Predicted nominees (10): Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon Time in Hollywood, Parasite, Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Forecasted winner: I think Parasite takes it.