Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, BlacKkKlansman, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star is Born

This year’s locks: The Irishman

Very likely: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Jojo Rabbit

Possible: Little Women, Joker, The Two Popes, Dark Waters

Unlikely: Hustlers, Just Mercy, Downton Abbey

The rundown: The WGA list seems very likely to translate exactly to the Oscar lineup. Even if they’re vulnerable in other categories, both The Irishman and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood should have no problem getting in here. That’s also true for Jojo Rabbit and Little Women, though we’ll see how both do overall with nominations since some groups have loved them more than others. I feel like Joker might not make the cut here since its script isn’t its strongest asset, and it could be replaced by a film the WGA put into the original race, where it wasn’t nominated, but managed to score a Golden Globe bid for screenplay: The Two Popes. There might also be room for the USC Scripter Awards’ choice of Dark Waters. Some votes could go to Hustlers, Just Mercy, or Downton Abbey, but I doubt any of them will be popular enough to place in this category.

One possible crazy scenario: Marvel fans make themselves known and Avengers: Endgame earns a bid for its epic franchise conclusion.

Forecasted winner: I’m not sure, but I’ll back The Irishman for now.