Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Yalitza Aparicio, Glenn Close, Olivia Colman, Lady Gaga, Melissa McCarthy

This year’s locks: Renee Zellweger, Scarlett Johansson, Charlize Theron

Very likely: Cynthia Erivo

Possible: Lupita Nyong’o, Awkwafina, Saoirse Ronan

Unlikely: Alfre Woodard

The rundown: This is a pretty contained race, one that has seven women competing with one waiting in the wings and likely too late to stage a surprise appearance. Golden Globe winner Renee Zellweger (Judy) is the surest thing, and I certainly hope that Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story) won’t fall victim to a shocking snub, though I’m worried that may be the case. Charlize Theron (Bombshell) seems set for a bid as well, as does Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), though less universal support for her film could lead to her missing out. Lupita Nyong’o (Us) didn’t score a Globe nomination but made the SAG list, and that seems likely to earn her a spot here. Awkwafina (The Farewell) missed with SAG but could rebound after her expected Globe win. Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) made the Globe list without her film and then was omitted by SAG, and so it seems like this may not earn her a fourth nomination at age twenty-five. These seven make up the Critics Choice list, and it’s still possible that one woman not cited there – Alfre Woodard (Clemency) – could show up, though the film hasn’t been showing up as strongly as it should have, which makes sense given its very late release.

One possible crazy scenario: If her film makes a surprise appearance in other races, which it could, Adele Haenel (Portrait of a Lady on Fire) might earn a wholly unexpected bid here.

Forecasted winner: It seems like Zellweger will win here.