Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

The competition:
The Irishman was written by Steven Zaillian, who won this award in 1993 for “Schindler’s List” and was nominated again in 2011 for “Moneyball.” The film also contends for Best Motion Picture – Drama, director Martin Scorsese, and stars Al Pacino and Joe Pesci.

Marriage Story was written by Noah Baumbach, earning his first Globe bid this year. The film is the nominations leader, contending for Best Motion Picture – Drama, its score and three of its stars.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was written by Quentin Tarantino, who is also nominated this year for Best Director. He won this award twice, in 1994 for “Pulp Fiction” and in 2012 for “Django Unchained.” He has two additional previous bids in this category and three for directing. His film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama and stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt.

Parasite was written by Bong Joon Ho, who is also nominated this year for Best Director, and Han Jin Won, who earns his first bid this year. His film is also nominated for Best Foreign Film.

The Two Popes was written by Anthony McCarten, who earns his first Globe nomination. The film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama and stars Jonathan Pryce and Anthony Hopkins.

Additional notes: The winner of this category has gone on to win one of the two corresponding Oscar prizes nine times in the past fifteen years, and only once in that time has ended up being snubbed altogether. Only twice in recent history has a foreign film been nominated in this race, in 2007 for “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” and last year for “Roma.” A Best Director nomination isn’t crucial here to a win, but it does help.
What should win? I wasn’t anywhere near as gung-ho for “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” as anyone else, and I didn’t love some aspects of the screenplay for “The Two Popes.” It may be long, but “The Irishman” is definitely well-written. I’d pick either “Marriage Story” or “Parasite.”
What will win? I think Once Upon a Time in Hollywood prevails here over “Marriage Story” and “The Irishman.”