Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Director – Motion Picture

The competition:
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman) directs his twenty-fifth film, which earns him his ninth nomination in this category and tenth overall. He won this prize in 2002 for “Gangs of New York,” in 2006 for “The Departed,” and in 2011 for “Hugo.” He was also awarded the Cecil B. DeMille Award in 2009. His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama, its screenplay, and for performances from stars Al Pacino and Joe Pesci.

Todd Phillips (Joker) directs his tenth film, which earns him his first nomination. He directed 2009’s winner for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical, “The Hangover.” His film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama, its score, and for star Joaquin Phoenix’s performance.

Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) directs his ninth film, returning to this category previous nominations for “Pulp Fiction,” “Inglourious Basterds,” and “Django Unchained.” He has two wins and two additional nominations in the screenplay category, where he also contends this year. His film is up for Best Motion Picture – Drama and for performances from stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt.

Bong Joon Ho (Parasite) directs his seventh film, earning him his first bid in this category. He is also nominated for Best Foreign Film. His film contends for its screenplay.

Sam Mendes (1917) directs his eighth film, returning to this category after a win for his directorial debut, “American Beauty,” in 1999. His film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama and its score.

Additional notes: The winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar ten times out of the past fifteen years, with only Ben Affleck missing out on a nomination altogether. Five of the last fifteen years, the film that won in this category did not also win the top corresponding film prize. Foreign film directors triumphed three out of the last four times they were nominated in this category, including last year.
Who should win? I don’t think this is Tarantino’s strongest work by any stretch and wouldn’t include him here. The other four are all excellent choices. I’d probably pick Scorsese or Joon Ho.
Who will win? While it’s possible that Joon Ho, Tarantino, or Mendes wins, I think that Scorsese will triumph.