The competition:
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) plays children’s television icon Mr. Rogers. Hanks has nine previous nominations, most recently in 2017 for “The Post,” winning for “Big,” “Philadelphia,” “Forrest Gump,” and “Cast Away.” He is the lone representative from his film.
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes) plays Pope Benedict XVI. Hopkins won the Cecil B. DeMille Award in 2006. He has six previous nominations, most recently in 1997 for “Amistad.” His film is nominated for several awards, including Best Motion Picture – Drama.
Al Pacino (The Irishman) plays Teamster leader Jimmy Hoffa. Pacino won the Cecil B. DeMille Award in 2001. He has fourteen previous film nominations, winning for “Serpico” and “Scent of a Woman,” and three TV bids, winning for “Angels in America” and “You Don’t Know Jack.” His most recent nomination was in 2015 for “Danny Collins.” His film is nominated for several awards, including Best Motion Picture – Drama.
Joe Pesci (The Irishman) plays mob boss Russell Bufalino. He has been nominated twice before, both for Martin Scorsese collaborations, in 1980 for “Raging Bull” and in 1990 for “Goodfellas.” His film is nominated for several awards, including Best Motion Picture – Drama.
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) plays stuntman Cliff Booth. He won a Globe in 1995 for “12 Monkeys” and was also nominated for “Legends of the Fall,” “Babel,” “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” and “Moneyball.” His film is nominated for several awards, including Best Motion Picture – Drama.
Additional notes: All but Hopkins are nominated for individual SAG Awards, and Pacino, Pesci, and Pitt also contend as part of his ensemble. Only once in the past forty years has the winner of this category gone on not to be nominated for an Oscar (Aaron Taylor-Johnson in 2016), and the victor here also claimed the Oscar all but four times in the past fifteen years. The last three times two men were nominated from the same film, neither won, but Timothy Hutton did eclipse costar Judd Hirsch in 1980 for “Ordinary People.”
Who should win? I can understand that Pitt was natural in his film, but I don’t think he needs to win. Hopkins wasn’t as terrific as his costar Jonathan Pryce. Hanks was great and would be a fine choice. Pacino grew on me, but he didn’t wow me the same way that Pesci did.
Who will win? I’m not sure. I think that Pitt could win, but I’m backing Pacino.
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