Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

The competition:
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet) plays Harriet Tubman. This is her first Globe nomination, but she also contends this year for a song from her film.

Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story) plays actress Nicole Parker. She has four previous SAG nominations, for “Lost in Translation,” “Girl with a Pearl Earring,” “A Love Song for Bobby Long,” and “Match Point.” Her film is the nominations leader and contends for Best Motion Picture – Drama.

Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) plays aspiring writer Jo March. She won a Globe in 2017 for her last collaboration with director Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird,” and was previously nominated for “Brooklyn” and “Atonement.” Her film is also nominated for Best Original Score.

Charlize Theron (Bombshell) plays journalist Megyn Kelly. She won a Globe in 2003 for “Monster,” and has since been nominated for “North Country,” “Young Adult,” and “Tully,” in addition to a TV bid. Her costar Margot Robbie is also nominated.

Renee Zellweger (Judy) plays actress Judy Garland. She won three Globes, for “Nurse Betty,” “Chicago,” and “Cold Mountain,” and was also nominated for “Bridget Jones’ Diary,” “Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason,” and “Miss Potter.” She is the lone representative from her film.

Additional notes: Everyone but Ronan is also nominated for an individual SAG Award, and Theron contends additionally as part of her ensemble. The winner of this category has gone on to win the Oscar a little over half the time in the past fifteen years.
Who should win? Erivo was good but didn’t wow me in the role. Theron disappeared into her performance and would be a solid choice. Ronan was great as always in a very fitting part. Johansson delivered one of her best turns in a while, but I think my pick is Zellweger for a truly immersive dive into her character.
Who will win? There’s a slight chance that Johansson or Theron could pick up enough momentum for a win, but Zellweger shouldn’t have much trouble taking this.