Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

The competition:
Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) plays distraught mother Bobi Jewell. Bates has four previous film nominations, winning in 1990 for “Misery,” and three TV bids, winning in 1996 for “The Late Shift.” She last contended in 2014 for “American Horror Story.” She is the lone representative from her film.

Annette Bening (The Report) plays Senator Dianne Feinstein. Bening has seven previous film nominations, winning for “Being Julia” and “The Kids Are All Right.” She also has a previous TV bid. She last contended in 2016 for “20th Century Women.” She is the lone representative from her film.

Laura Dern (Marriage Story) plays divorce lawyer Nora Fanshaw. Dern was Miss Golden Globe in 1981 and has just one previous film bid, for “Rambling Rose” in 1991. She has won four out of six TV bids, for “Afterburn,” “Recount,” “Enlightened,” and “Big Little Lies.” Her film is the nominations leader and contends for Best Motion Picture – Drama.

Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) plays stripper Ramona Vega. Lopez was previously nominated in 1997 for “Selena.” She is the lone representative from her film.

Margot Robbie (Bombshell) plays Fox News producer Kayla Pospisil. Robbie was previously nominated in 2017 for “I, Tonya.” Her costar Charlize Theron is also nominated this year.

Additional notes: Dern, Lopez, and Robbie all contend for individual SAG Awards, and Robbie is nominated as part of her ensemble as well. Only four times in the entire history of this category has the winner gone on not to be nominated for an Oscar, and the most recent time was more than forty years ago. All but five times in the past fifteen years, the winner of this category has also won the Oscar, and several of those instances involved different nominees and category placements.
Who should win? I liked Bates, but she wasn’t the strongest part of her film. Bening didn’t impress me much in this turn. Robbie was great, and I’d be happy with her or Dern. Lopez did steal her film, which might be worthy of a win.
Who will win? It’s a two-way race between Lopez and Dern. I’m backing the former.