My predictions: 3/5, missing Ho and Phillips
Who’s missing? Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story), Greta Gerwig (Little Women), Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
There was definitely a strong surge of support for Todd Phillips (Joker) and his film, though it’s also possible that he won’t be along the ride if he follows the path of another director who used to do less sophisticated comedies whose film went on to win Best Picture without him even being nominated (Peter Farrelly for “Green Book” last year). This is also good news for Bong Joon Ho (Parasite), whose film scored three total bids, which is pretty much the best it could have done given that it’s a foreign film. Sam Mendes (1917) saw his film get nominated in every category it could have since there aren’t a wealth of technical categories for it to dominate like it likely will at the Oscars. The other two nominees, as expected, are Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) and Martin Scorsese (The Irishman). Interestingly, Baumbach couldn’t manage to get in here despite his film being the nominations leader. This list also doesn’t include any women, with Gerwig as the only one who stood much of a chance going in, a track record that’s only continuing to become a trend each year.
Who will win? I think Scorsese wins this, though it could be Mendes or Tarantino.
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