Monday Oscar Odds

This week, I saw a number of films, most notably “The Irishman.” While it was undeniably long, it impressed me, and I think that De Niro, Pacino, and Pesci – my favorite – will all be in. I also got to see “Downton Abbey,” and given that there was a number of Academy members in the audience, their laughter at every one of Maggie Smith’s lines gives me confidence that she’ll probably be nominated unless other contenders emerge. “Just Mercy” probably won’t figure into the race, and aside from a Best Original Score bid, I think “A Hidden Life” won’t show up too much.

The film that I saw which will now figure into my predictions is “The Two Popes.” I didn’t think that Jonathan Pryce or Anthony Hopkins would be nominated, but I’m now pretty confident that Pryce will make the cut for Best Actor. I don’t see the film showing up anywhere else, but it’s possible Hopkins could contend or the film’s screenplay could if people really embrace it. I’m officially swapping Pryce in and Leonardo DiCaprio out.

I’m excited to be seeing “Bombshell” this coming week, along with “Queen and Slim,” a potential contender, and a few of the notable Best International Feature submissions. I may be able to catch a few more of the films I’ve noted below, but I’m not sure of my exact schedule just yet. The nominations for the Film Independent Spirit Awards will be announced on Thursday, and so that should give us a better framework of what to expect, likely prompting some big changes in next week’s lineup. Stay tuned!

Current predictions:

Best Picture
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Farewell
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Director
Martin Scorsese The Irishman)
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)

Best Actor
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Robert De Niro (The Irishman)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

Best Actress
Awkwafina (The Farewell)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Alfre Woodard (Clemency)
Renée Zellweger (Judy)

Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown (Waves)
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

Best Original Screenplay
The Farewell
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Waves

Best Adapted Screenplay
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell
The Irishman
Rocketman

Best Animated Feature
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Klaus
Toy Story 4
Weathering with You

Best Documentary
American Factory
The Apollo
Apollo 11
The Biggest Little Farm
Honeyland

Best International Feature
Les Miserables (France)
Out Stealing Horses (Norway)
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Parasite (South Korea)
Pain and Glory (Spain)