Monday Oscar Odds

It’s been a very busy week of screenings, and I have even more scheduled for this week. I’m trying to keep on top of the buzz to understand what films may be gaining or losing advantages, even if I have yet to see them or didn’t like them.

I’m adding one category here with three films I haven’t yet seen but hope to within the next week and a half or so. The Makeup Artists and Hair Stylists Guild announced their nominations earlier today. I’m choosing three films that seem likeliest, though it’s also possible that “Joker,” “Downton Abbey,” or “Hustlers” could break into the three-wide field.

I’ve watched a handful of other documentaries that could contend, mostly from DOC NYC. I’m subbing in “The Apollo” in place of “Ask Dr. Ruth,” but I also think that either of the Syrian films in contention, “The Cave” and “For Sama,” could easily displace one or two of the others. We’ll have to see what the finalist list of fifteen films announced in just over a month will include.

I got to screen a handful of Best International Feature submissions, including those from Poland, France, North Macedonia, Estonia, and Israel. Reviews will be forthcoming for those – at this time, I’m not making any changes to my predictions. The European Film Awards also announced their nominees, which included top placements for submissions from France, Spain, Germany, and Italy.

The most high-profile contender that I watched this week was “Marriage Story,” which really was very good. I see it doing very well across the board, and while Alan Alda, an original prediction of mine who I took out last week, could make the cut, his role really is very small. The big question mark remains “1917,” which is slated to begin screening in two weeks and which I hope to see soon. I’ve resisted putting it in, but I think I’m going to add it now in place of “Little Women,” another film I won’t be seeing for a few weeks, though I’m not yet bumping anyone from Best Director.

I’m finally going to screen “The Irishman” tonight and have a number of other exciting contenders to see this week. I don’t feel confident about either the Best Actor or Best Supporting Actor lineups, but I’ll have to see more films and precursors first before making any serious changes. Stick around for reviews and updated predictions next week!

Current predictions:

Best Picture
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Farewell
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Director
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)

Best Actor
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Robert De Niro (The Irishman)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

Best Actress
Awkwafina (The Farewell)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Alfre Woodard (Clemency)
Renée Zellweger (Judy)

Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown (Waves)
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

Best Original Screenplay
The Farewell
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Waves

Best Adapted Screenplay
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell
The Irishman
Rocketman

Best Animated Feature
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Klaus
Toy Story 4
Weathering with You

Best Documentary
American Factory
The Apollo
Apollo 11
The Biggest Little Farm
Honeyland

Best International Feature
Les Miserables (France)
Out Stealing Horses (Norway)
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Parasite (South Korea)
Pain and Glory (Spain)