Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

The competition: Amy Adams (Vice), Marina de Tavira (Roma), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Previous winners: Allison Janney, Viola Davis, Alicia Vikander, Patricia Arquette, Lupita N’yongo, Anne Hathaway, Octavia Spencer
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: Adams has five previous nominations, the most recent of which came in 2013 for “American Hustle.” Stone won in 2016 for “La La Land” and was nominated before that in 2014 for “Birdman.” Weisz won on her only nomination in 2005 for “The Constant Gardener.” This is the first nomination for both de Tavira and King. De Tavira would be the first performer to win this award for an entirely foreign-language performance, since Penelope Cruz’s performance in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” included plenty of English. Starring in a Best Picture nominee isn’t crucial – five of the past fifteen winners have triumphed despite that handicap, and King is the one who would benefit most this year. This category is no stranger to double nominees from the same film. In fact, it happened all four years between 2008 and 2011, with two of those cases resulting in wins for one of those two nominated women. King won the Globe and the Critics’ Choice Award but wasn’t nominated at SAG, where Emily Blunt, who isn’t on this list, won for “A Quiet Place.”

Who should win: I’m all for anyone in this category. De Tavira impressed in her film, embedding humor and humanity in her portrayal of a frazzled mother and wife. Though I didn’t like her film, Adams was completely on point, funnier than usual and totally committed to the role. King was a strong element of an underrated and underrepresented film, and even if I’d choose some of its technical aspects to reward instead, she’s definitely worthy of praise. Both Adams and Weisz were absolutely terrific, and though I’ve picked Weisz when I’ve had to, I’d be ecstatic and perfectly satisfied if either of them won.
Who will win: The expectation was that Adams would win the SAG with King out of the running, but when she didn’t, it suggested that King can overcome that problematic snub to triumph. The only thing that would be her undoing would be a surge in popularity for the three stars of the two nominations leaders, but I don’t see it happening.