The competition: Amy Adams’ former Second Lady (Vice), Emily Blunt’s protective mother (A Quiet Place), Margot Robbie’s competitive queen (Mary, Queen of Scots), Emma Stone’s manipulative mistress (The Favourite), and Rachel Weisz’s duplicitous duchess (The Favourite).
For your information: Both Adams and Stone are also nominated this year in the TV limited series actress race. Adams has four previous solo film nominations, for “Junebug,” “Doubt,” “The Fighter,” and “Arrival,” plus ensemble bids for the middle two and a win for “American Hustle” in 2013. Stone won for her individual role in “La La Land” in 2016, also with ensemble wins for “The Help” in 2011 and “Birdman” in 2014, along with a solo nomination for the latter. Weisz won on her only bid in 2005 for “The Constant Gardener.” Robbie was nominated last year for “I, Tonya.” Blunt was nominated in 2016 for “The Girl on the Train” and also contends in the lead actress category this year. Neither Blunt nor Robbie is nominated for an Oscar this year. None of these women are nominated as part of their ensembles. The winner of both the Golden Globe and the Critics’ Choice Award, Regina King, is not nominated. All but seven times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar.
Who should win? I wasn’t wowed by Robbie, and Blunt wouldn’t be my choice. Adams was great, but my vote would go to either Stone or Weisz, probably the latter.
Who will win? Without King in the mix, the expectation is that Adams wins her first solo SAG Award, with Weisz likeliest to upset.
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