Last year’s nominees: Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Mudbound, The Shape of Water
My choices: Coming in February!
This year’s locks: Roma, The Favourite
Very likely: First Man
Possible: Cold War, Black Panther, A Star is Born, If Beale Street Could Talk
Unlikely: The Rider, A Quiet Place, Mary Poppins Returns
The rundown: The American Society of Cinematographers list is the best framework for predicting this list, matching entirely last year. Roma is safe, and The Favourite should be too. For however inconsistently First Man has been performing in the top races, it’s been rewarded for its technical elements almost universally. Likely Best Foreign Film nominee Cold War is a good bet considering “Ida” was nominated four years ago. As for the fifth nominee, A Star is Born is the likely choice, though I’m going to predict that Black Panther will provide a repeat nomination for last year’s first-ever female nominee, Rachel Morrison. I wish If Beale Street Could Talk, which missed with a number of guilds including ASC, would be able to get in here, but I’m losing faith. I’d also The Rider earned a spotlight award from ASC and this would make sense as a place for the much-loved film to be recognized. Other possibilities include A Quiet Place and Mary Poppins Returns, but neither is likely to bump the other contenders.
One possible crazy scenario: A film that some seem to love but doesn’t seem likely to perform well gets recognized for its visual presentation: the sci-fi mystery Annihilation.
Forecasted winner: I don’t see it being anything other than Roma.
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