Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 22nd. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Call Me By Your Name, The Disaster Artist, Logan, Molly’s Game, Mudbound

My choices: Coming in February!

This year’s locks: If Beale Street Could Talk, BlacKkKlansman

Very likely: Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Possible: Black Panther, A Star is Born, First Man, Leave No Trace, The Death of Stalin, Crazy Rich Asians

Unlikely: Incredibles 2

The rundown: This is one category where the Writers Guild of America list is expected to translate directly to Oscar. Even if it’s missed out on almost all important guilds, If Beale Street Could Talk did register with WGA and should make this field even if it (unfortunately) misses out elsewhere. BlacKkKlansman is looking strong and shouldn’t have a problem getting in here, and, though it’s not a serious Best Picture contender, Can You Ever Forgive Me? has a great shot for its script. Black Panther is far from a sure thing but should still be able to make the cut, and A Star is Born is likely to be honored even if its script isn’t its most prominent element. First Man missed with the Globes but might still curry favor from Oscar voters, while Crazy Rich Asians could earn a bid given the momentum it’s experienced recently. Two films that weren’t eligible for WGA might shake up this list, both of which have popped up sporadically throughout awards seasons: Leave No Trace and The Death of Stalin. Also not on WGA’s consideration list was Incredibles 2, whose original film earned a Best Original Screenplay nomination in 2004.

One possible crazy scenario: It never gained any awards attraction beyond a Golden Globe nomination for star Robert Redford, but The Old Man and the Gun could be honored for an engaging script based on a New Yorker Article.

Forecasted winner: I actually think that If Beale Street Could Talk can triumph here.