Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 22nd. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Sally Hawkins, Frances McDormand, Margot Robbie, Saoirse Ronan, Meryl Streep

My choices: Coming in February!

This year’s locks: Lady Gaga, Glenn Close, Olivia Colman

Very likely: Melissa McCarthy

Possible: Yalitza Aparicio, Emily Blunt, Toni Collette

Unlikely: Nicole Kidman, Elsie Fisher, Viola Davis, Rosamund Pike, Regina Hall

The rundown: The surprise Golden Globe win earlier this week for Glenn Close (The Wife) makes her a sure thing, joining the expected winner that she defeated, Lady Gaga (A Star is Born). Another Globe victor, Olivia Colman (The Favourite) is just as much of a lock at this point. Though early awards returns made Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) look like she might miss out here, it seems like she’ll be fine now. For the fifth slot, there are a whole lot of contenders. The strongest bet might seem like Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns), who picked up Globe, SAG, and Critics’ Choice bids, as well as a second bid for “A Quiet Place” from SAG. Globe nominees Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) and Rosamund Pike (A Private War) will garner some votes without separate enthusiasm for their films, while another Globe nominee, fifteen-year-old Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade), could show up with her film if it makes an appearance. Regina Hall (Support the Girls) has picked up a handful of critics’ awards for her small film, and is likely to get some Oscar votes too. Watch out also for Critics’ Choice nominee Toni Collette (Hereditary), whose only previous Oscar bid came for another horror movie, “The Sixth Sense,” and she showed up then with pretty much no precursor support at all. I’m putting my money behind Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), the breakout star of the film that I still think will win Best Picture. Her debut performance has been praised extensively, earning her a Critics’ Choice mention and other nominations, and I think she’ll end up being nominee number five. Viola Davis (Widows) and her film have missed out with almost every awards body, but somehow she managed to get nominated for a BAFTA over her film’s British director and three prominent British costars, so it’s fair to assume that the recent Oscar winner has some supporters, though not likely enough to crack this list, something I and others were sure she would do right before her film was released.

One possible crazy scenario: Those who have been decrying category fraud all season are rewarded with either two or three shocking nominations for one movie here, promoting either Emma Stone (The Favourite) or Rachel Weisz (The Favourite), or both, to this race.

Forecasted winner: Close’s win at the Globes make it seem like she’s going to get the Oscar now, but I’m still backing Lady Gaga.