Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

The competition:
The Favourite was written by Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, both first-time nominees. The film also contends for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and all three of its stars.

Green Book was written by Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, and Peter Farrelly, all first-time nominees. Farrelly also contends for Best Director, and the film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and both of its stars.

If Beale Street Could Talk was written by Barry Jenkins, a previous nominee in this category and for Best Director in 2016 for “Moonlight.” His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama and for supporting actress Regina King.

Roma was written by Alfonso Cuaron, who is also nominated this year for Best Director. He won that award in 2013 for “Gravity.” His film is also nominated for Best Foreign Film, a prize he previously contended for with “Y Tu Mama Tambien” in 2001, this year.

Vice was written by Adam McKay, who is also nominated this year for Best Director and who contended in this category in 2015 for “The Big Short.” His film is the nominations leader with six total bids, including Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical.

Additional notes: The winner of this category has gone on to win one of the two corresponding Oscar prizes ten times in the past fifteen years, and only once in that time has ended up being snubbed altogether. Only once in recent history has a foreign film been nominated in this race, and that was 2007 nominee “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.” A Best Director nomination isn’t crucial here to a win, but it does help.
What should win? I have plenty of issues with “Vice,” which I don’t think should necessarily be here, and much as I really liked “Roma,” I’m not sure its screenplay was worthy of particular commendation. “Green Book” is delightful and entertaining, and “If Beale Street Could Talk” is beautifully written. The script that truly sparkled was “The Favourite,” full of fantastic lines and a superb narrative.
What will win? I’m going to optimistically pick The Favourite though I’m worried about “Vice” taking it instead.