Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Original Score

The competition:
Black Panther was composed by Ludwig Göransson, marking his first nomination. The film also contends for Best Motion Picture – Drama and Best Original Song. This is Göransson’s third collaboration with director Ryan Coogler.

First Man was composed by Justin Hurwitz, who won this award and the Best Original Song prize two years ago for “La La Land.” The film also contends for Best Supporting Actress. This is Hurwitz’s fourth collaboration with director Damien Chazelle.

Isle of Dogs was composed by Alexandre Desplat, who won this award last year for “The Shape of Water.” He has eight other previous nominations, including a win for “The Painted Veil” for 2006. The film also contends for Best Animated Film. This is his fourth collaboration with director Wes Anderson.

Mary Poppins Returns was composed by Marc Shaiman, who earned his first nomination last year for Best Original Song for “The Star.” His film also contends for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and stars Emily Blunt and Lin-Manuel Miranda. He has five Oscar nominations for his score and song work. This is his first collaboration with director Rob Marshall.

A Quiet Place was composed by Marco Beltrami, who earns his first nomination this year and his film’s only mention. The score dominates a film that features very little dialogue. This is his first collaboration with director John Krasinski.

Additional notes: The winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar ten times in the past fifteen years, failing to receive a nomination just three times. All five of these scores made the fiteen-wide finalist list for this year’s Oscar category. Musicals have only won this award twice since Disney animated films dominated in the early 1990s.
What should win? I’m not sure that “Mary Poppins Returns” needed to be here, and there are some positive qualities of the “A Quiet Place” score that make me understand why it was nominated. “Isle of Dogs” is classic Desplat/Anderson material, and a fine choice. “Black Panther” would be a cool pick, but nothing in this race compares to “First Man” for me.
What will win? I’m not sure. I’m going to pick First Man with “Black Panther” as a possible spoiler.