SAG Nominees: Best Actor in a Leading Role

My predictions: 4/5, missing Washington
Who’s missing? Ethan Hawke (First Reformed), Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns)

This category waited alphabetically for its final surprise, omitting, as I had predicted, critics’ favorite Hawke. He’s probably still in for the Oscar at the expense of someone no one thinks will be snubbed, like James Franco from last year. I wouldn’t count out unexpected inclusion John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman), whose film seems to be going the distance and whose trajectory might mirror that of his father Denzel’s two years ago, albeit with support for his movie. He’s nominated along with the ensemble of his film, joining Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) and, less expectedly, Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) in that distinction. The other two nominees didn’t achieve that distinction, despite many predicting it: Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) and Christian Bale (Vice), joined by one supporting player each. This list is mostly standard, with Washington gaining plenty of momentum on the way to the Oscars.

Who will win? Based on the ensemble nomination, I think Malek can do it over Bale.