My predictions: 3/5, missing Spike Lee and Adam McKay
Who’s missing? Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk), Damien Chazelle (First Man), Ryan Coogler (Black Panther), Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns)
This category contains some great news for certain directors and very bad news for others. I didn’t expect Adam McKay (Vice) to peak this early, both because he didn’t get a Globe nomination before his eventual Oscar bid for “The Big Short” and because his film performed poorly with precursors. Ending up as the nominations leader here means that it is a firm frontrunner in a way it really wasn’t before. The same goes for Peter Farrelly (Green Book), whose inclusion as a comedy film director was far from guaranteed. Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) earned his first nomination in twenty-nine years and only his second overall, giving him a decent shot at Oscar for the first time. The news is worst for Lanthimos, whose omission is disconcerting, and Chazelle, who is now likely out of the race. Jenkins probably doesn’t have to worry as much, but he’s going to have some serious competition to get past the previously mentioned nominees. It's worth noting that there are no female directors here again, but I don't know if the contenders this year were as high-profile as Greta Gerwig last year, so we'll see if someone shows up later in the race. Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) and Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) have nothing to worry about since their films did great and they’re far out ahead.
Who will win? I’m putting my money on Cuaron.
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