This all feels too easy. Maybe it’s not the case, but I think I’ve seen almost all the movies I’m predicting to be nominated, which is very rare at this point in Oscar season. It also suggests that I’m missing a bunch that I haven’t seen yet. I’m still fairly convinced that “First Man” will do well here even if peters out in major categories after that, but I’m thinking that “If Beale Street Could Talk” may show up in a stronger way than most expect. I’m adding in Ethan Hawke since it seems that his first is going to do well and putting in Rachel Weisz for Best Supporting Actress, a nomination she so deserves even though I wasn’t predicting it previously. The only other change I’m making is to put “Everybody Knows,” which is not eligible for the corresponding Oscar, for Best Foreign Film, over “Capernaum,” which I think will definitely end up on the Oscar list.
This will be a testing ground of sorts for a few films. “Vice” may be peaking too late with shut-outs from a number of precursors, but I think it will show up here. If “BlacKkKlansman” doesn’t show up in a big way, that may be it for that film. The same is true for Melissa McCarthy, who has missed out on too many precursors for it not to be a concern. Maybe her film will even end up making the top category too. I’m hoping that “Widows” ends up with a big haul. I’d be so happy if Elizabeth Debicki made it, and it would be great if Daniel Kaluuya or Brian Tyree Henry made the cut too. The top Comedy/Musical race is an unknown one since there are six solid contenders plus a few wild cards, and I’m wondering if we’ll see a big surprise there. The Best Actress – Drama race is the one with the most possibilities for inclusion, with Nicole Kidman, Rosamund Pike, and Felicity Jones all potential upsets. I’m excited to see what comes! Full reactions by category beginning Thursday morning, though probably not quite as early as nominations are announced given that I’m currently in Los Angeles.
No guts, no glory:
Joaquin Phoenix (You Were Never Really Here) for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
All three actresses from “The Favourite” in Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical
“Leave No Trace” for Best Motion Picture – Drama
Final predictions:
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Ryan Gosling (First Man)
Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)
Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Viola Davis (Widows)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical
Christian Bale (Vice)
Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun)
Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool 2)
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical
Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)
Charlize Theron (Tully)
Constance Wu (Crazy Rich Asians)
Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Amy Adams (Vice)
Claire Foy (First Man)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Best Animated Film
Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Foreign Film
Cold War (Poland)
Everybody Knows (Spain)
Happy as Lazzaro (Italy)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
Best Original Score
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Best Original Song
Revelation (Boy Erased)
Trip A Little Light Fantastic (Mary Poppins Returns)
Always Remember Us This Way (A Star is Born)
The Shallows (A Star is Born)
Flower of the Universe (A Wrinkle in Time)
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Director – Motion Picture
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Damien Chazelle (First Man)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Best Motion Picture – Drama
BlacKkKlansman
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born
Widows
Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice
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