Monday Oscar Odds

I haven’t actually done this since 2011, but since I feel like I’ve seen a whole lot of the Oscar contenders much earlier this year, I want to keep a running list each week of where I think the Oscar race stands. I regularly visit The Film Experience, Awards Daily, and Gold Derby for a look at what others are saying, but here’s what I think based on what I’ve seen and what I’ve heard. I’ll update each week and add more categories as we get closer.

At this point, I haven’t seen “Green Book” and “If Beale Street Could Talk,” and no one has seen “Vice” or “The Mule.” I’m not confident at all in the Oscar chances of Richard E. Grant and Sam Elliott, and I’m hoping that Rachel Weisz will continue to be part of the Oscar conversation in the supporting category. Having seen “Widows” (review coming soon), I think that film will do very well.

There are still plenty of other films that could end up on this list, but here’s where we stand as far as I can tell:

Best Picture
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice
Widows

Best Director
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Damien Chazelle (First Man)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)

Best Actor
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Clint Eastwood (The Mule)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

Best Actress
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Viola Davis (Widows)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Daniel Kaluuya (Widows)

Best Supporting Actress
Claire Foy (First Man)
Elizabeth Debicki (Widows)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Best Original Screenplay
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
Vice

Best Adapted Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Widows