Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 23rd. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight

This year’s locks: The Shape of Water, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird

Very likely: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me By Your Name, The Post

Possible: The Florida Project, The Big Sick, I, Tonya, Molly’s Game, The Disaster Artist, Darkest Hour, Mudbound, Phantom Thread

The rundown: It’s still so hard to figure out what will be included here with a field that’s between five and ten nominees. Recent backlash against Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Post shouldn’t affect either film since there’s still space. They’ll join The Shape of Water, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, and Call Me By Your Name. After that, things get a bit more unpredictable. I’m banking on The Florida Project to show up despite missing at the Globes and PGA. The Big Sick isn’t a guarantee but will hopefully make the cut, with only the Globes shutting it out as a detractor. I, Tonya and Molly’s Game have been building steam lately, both earning PGA bids, and so they could show up, as could The Disaster Artist. Most people still think Darkest Hour will make the cut although it’s underperformed recently, and it’s hard to know if either Mudbound or Phantom Thread will surge enough to show up. I’m predicting just nine nominees, stopping at “The Big Sick.”

One possible crazy scenario: It hasn’t worked in the past for genre films, but could Wonder Woman get enough votes? I can’t imagine it will.

Forecasted winner: I think The Shape of Water will take it, but this year has been crazy, so who knows?